Nutrien, one of the largest global fertiliser producers, was formed as a result of the merger between PotashCorp Saskatchewan and Agrium. The company sells over 27mt of potash, phosphates, and nitrogen fertilisers. The retail network includes over 2,000 shops in seven countries. The company gets access to farmers via over 3,400 crop advisors and agronomists. Nutrien's potash capacity of over 20mt is located at six lower-cost potash mines in Saskatchewan. Nutrien is the third-largest nitrogen producer in the world with over 7mt of gross ammonia capacity. The company can produce 11mt of total nitrogen products in the US, Canada, and Trinidad. In the phosphate segment, the company operates two large integrated phosphate mining and processing facilities and four plants in the US.
Nutrien Ltd. is a Canada-based company, which is a provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates through four segments: Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds and merchandise, and it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America and Australia. Its Retail business includes Nutrien Ag Solutions and Landmark Retail businesses, which provide agricultural solutions, including nutrients, crop protection products, seed, services and agronomic advice to growers. The Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by t... Nutrien Ltd. is a Canada-based company, which is a provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates through four segments: Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. The Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds and merchandise, and it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America and Australia. Its Retail business includes Nutrien Ag Solutions and Landmark Retail businesses, which provide agricultural solutions, including nutrients, crop protection products, seed, services and agronomic advice to growers. The Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrients contained in the products that it produces. The Company produces and distributes over 27 million tons of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial and feed customers worldwide. It operates approximately 2,000 retail locations in over seven countries.
The global fertiliser market experienced an essential price increase across the product range in 2022 and has seen some correction in 1H23. Global fertiliser priceswent lower YoY in 2Q23 despit strong sector fundamentals. The potash demand is estimated at 60mt in 2022 and may exceed 70mt in 2023. The nitrogen market met growing gas costs in 2022 due to the limited supply of gas in Europe from Russia. The demand was strong in July-August 2023, helping fertiliser price environment.
- Strong market position due to large own capacities and own retail chain
- Access to final customers in key markets via own retail chain helps to stabilize margin through cycle
- Self-sufficiency in phosphate feedstock and high nitrogen capacity
- Dominance in export potash markets due to high scale of export volumes
- Large own nitrogen capacities
- Growing fertiliser demand in the medium and long-term, driven by population growth
- Exposure to gas and energy cost growth and volatility
- Risk of market share reduction in Asia due to geopolitical changes
- The potential downside for fertiliser prices once the war conflict in Eastern Europe abates
- Cost inflation
- The risk of Chinese exports increase in phosphate and nitrogen segments
- Energy price volatility
- Weakening demand of farmers due to delayed season, decreasing margin, and other factors
- Cost inflation
- Geopolitical risks
- Risks of potential oversupply from low-cost regions
| Company | RIC | Market Capitalization, $mn | Last reporting year | P/E Fwd 1Y | P/E Fwd 2Y | EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd | EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd | EV/Revenues 1y fwd | EV/Revenues 2y fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutrien Ltd | NTR.N | 30,991 | 2022-12-31 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Mosaic Co | MOS.N | 12,510 | 2022-12-31 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| CF Industries Holdings Inc | CF.N | 16,157 | 2022-12-31 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| ICL Group Ltd | ICL.TA | 7,459 | 2022-12-31 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Yara International ASA | YAR.OL | 9,851 | 2022-12-31 | 14.6 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| K&S AG | SDFGn.DE | 3,602 | 2022-12-31 | 19.0 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18,169 | 19,636 | 20,084 | 20,908 | 27,712 | 37,884 | 31,261 | 32,676 | 33,370 |
| Growth | 8% | 2% | 4% | 33% | 37% | -17% | 5% | 2% | |
| EBITDA | 2,412 | 2,006 | 3,661 | 2,891 | 6,732 | 14,360 | 7,497 | 8,110 | 8,263 |
| EBITDA margin | 13.3% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 13.8% | 24.3% | 37.9% | 24.0% | 24.8% | 24.8% |
| Net income | 656 | -31 | 992 | 459 | 3,179 | 7,687 | 2,363 | 2,756 | 2,853 |
| Net margin | 3.6% | -0.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 11.5% | 20.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Net debt | 9,134 | 6,889 | 9,360 | 8,766 | 9,127 | 9,823 | 9,823 | 9,823 | 9,823 |
| MktCap | 29,841 | 29,155 | 27,593 | 42,808 | 35,795 | 35,795 | 35,795 | 35,795 |
Historical Multiples
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| P/E | -962.6 | 29.4 | 60.1 | 13.5 | 4.7 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 12.5 |
