Diageo PLC
Consumer Staples
Europe
Investment summary

Diageo is a leading global alcoholic beverage company, ranking third worldwide by total beverage alcohol (TBA) value. It holds the top position in international spirits retail sales value, being 1.4 times larger than its nearest competitor. In the super-premium and above international spirits segment, Diageo leads with a retail sales value exceeding £6.1 billion. The company's extensive portfolio comprises over 200 brands across various product categories, with sales in more than 180 countries. Diageo operates 132 production sites globally. In 2020, Diageo announced a target to increase its TBA market value share from 4% to 6% by 2030. As of 2022, the company's TBA share stood at 4.6%, indicating progress toward this goal. These strategic initiatives and robust operations underscore Diageo's commitment to growth and leadership in the global alcoholic beverage industry.

Details
Ticker
DGE.L
Trading currency
GBp
Last close price, (currency)
2,341.5
Common shares outstanding
2,220,000,000
Preferred shares
0
MktCap, (currency) mn
66,012
Target price
Current opinion
Description

Diageo PLC is a global leader in the alcoholic beverage industry. The company operates across various categories, including spirits and beer, and its geographic segments encompass North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas and the Caribbean, as well as Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P). Diageo's principal products include Scotch whisky, gin, vodka, rum, beer, Irish cream liqueur, wine, raki, tequila, Canadian whisky, American whiskey, progressive adult beverages, cachaça, brandy, and ready-to-drink offerings. Its portfolio features iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Buchanan’s, and Windsor whiskies; Smirnoff, Cîroc, and Ketel One vodkas; Captain Morgan;... Diageo PLC is a global leader in the alcoholic beverage industry. The company operates across various categories, including spirits and beer, and its geographic segments encompass North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas and the Caribbean, as well as Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P). Diageo's principal products include Scotch whisky, gin, vodka, rum, beer, Irish cream liqueur, wine, raki, tequila, Canadian whisky, American whiskey, progressive adult beverages, cachaça, brandy, and ready-to-drink offerings. Its portfolio features iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Buchanan’s, and Windsor whiskies; Smirnoff, Cîroc, and Ketel One vodkas; Captain Morgan; Baileys; Don Julio; Tanqueray; and Guinness. The company also produces a variety of ready-to-drink products, primarily in the United Kingdom, Italy, South Africa, Australia, the United States, and Canada. With a portfolio of approximately 200 brands, Diageo operates in over 180 countries worldwide.

Industry view (TAM)

The total beverage alcohol (TBA) market is a resilient industry supported by attractive long-term trends. In 2022, the global TBA market achieved a retail sales value of $962 billion, with approximately 5 billion total equivalent units of alcohol sold. The market's growth is primarily driven by the expansion of the global middle class, with an additional 600 million consumers projected to come of age by 2032 (World Bank, 2022). This demographic shift will enable hundreds of millions of new consumers to access premium brands, aligning with the growing preference to "drink better, not more." Despite this growth, spirits penetration remains relatively low; only 50% of U.S. households purchase spirits annually. Consumer preferences shifted during the pandemic, with premium brands gaining a larger market share. Premiumization has emerged as a key long-term trend, with the highest-priced brands growing at more than twice the rate of the broader international spirits category between 2016 and 2021.

Pros
  1. Diageo benefits from a strong market position and a diverse, high-quality brand portfolio. The company operates in the super-premium segment, one of the fastest-growing areas within the total beverage alcohol (TBA) market.
  2. Diageo aims to increase its TBA market share to 6.0% by 2030, up from 4.0% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2022.
  3. The company addresses environmental challenges by implementing sustainability practices and developing sustainable sourcing initiatives in emerging markets such as Africa, South America, and India.
  4. Diageo maintains a shareholder-focused policy, providing returns through both dividend payouts and share buyback programs.
  5. In the United States, Diageo holds a strong position with a 7.4% share of the TBA market, with its two largest brands achieving 16% household penetration.
Cons
  1. High feedstock inflation, including soaring prices of soft commodities, poses a risk to the company’s margins.
  2. Weak macroeconomic conditions in target markets may lead to slower demand growth in the premium and super-premium segments.
  3. The post-pandemic economic environment has created significant challenges for the company’s business, particularly in markets such as China.
  4. Global macroeconomic risks and changing consumer preferences may disrupt supply chains, posing a threat to production volumes.
  5. The company is vulnerable to regulatory changes in the countries where it produces and sells its products, which could impact operations and profitability.
Risks
  1. Regulatory Changes: The company faces risks from evolving regulations, trade barriers, and direct or indirect tax policies, which could impact operations and profitability.
  2. Global Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks: Inflation, commodity market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainties pose challenges to the company's financial stability and operational efficiency.
  3. Pandemics and Business Interruptions: Health crises and unforeseen disruptions can severely impact production, supply chains, and consumer demand.
  4. Climate Change and Sustainability: Environmental concerns influence production and sourcing practices and require strategic investment decisions to align with sustainability goals.
  5. Supply Chain Risks: Global supply chain disruptions, driven by macroeconomic or logistical challenges, threaten production volumes and timely delivery of products.
  6. Changing Consumer Preferences: Shifting trends in consumer behavior demand adaptability in product offerings and marketing strategies. Intensified Competition: Existing and emerging brands create a highly competitive market environment, requiring innovation and differentiation to maintain market share.
Historical price chart
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Peer Group (top 5)

Company RIC Market Capitalization, $mn Last reporting year P/E Fwd 1Y P/E Fwd 2Y EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd EV/Revenues 1y fwd EV/Revenues 2y fwd
Diageo PLC DGE.L 66,012 2024-06-30 17.4 16.2 13.6 13.0 4.3 4.2
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE LVMH.PA 320,719 2023-12-31 22.7 21.6 12.9 12.3 4.0 3.9
Pernod Ricard SA PERP.PA 27,767 2024-06-30 13.9 13.4 11.1 10.7 3.4 3.3
Heineken NV HEIN.AS 41,646 2023-12-31 14.6 13.5 9.0 8.6 1.9 1.9
Remy Cointreau SA RCOP.PA 3,177 2024-03-31 23.2 21.7 13.8 12.8 3.7 3.4
Carlsberg A/S CARLb.CO 14,379 2023-12-31 13.6 11.9 8.5 7.1 1.7 1.4
Financials
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Revenue 15,273 16,366 16,647 14,799 17,128 20,536 20,586 20,269 21,591 22,524 24,044
Growth 7% 2% -11% 16% 20% 0% -2% 7% 4% 7%
EBITDA 5,013 5,622 5,803 5,283 5,775 7,580 7,362 7,037 6,973 7,248 7,831
EBITDA margin 32.8% 34.4% 34.9% 35.7% 33.7% 36.9% 35.8% 34.7% 32.3% 32.2% 32.6%
Net income 3,374 4,066 4,088 1,774 3,578 4,678 4,452 4,012 4,003 4,209 4,626
Net margin 22.1% 24.8% 24.6% 12.0% 20.9% 22.8% 21.6% 19.8% 18.5% 18.7% 19.2%
Net debt 10,433 12,095 14,758 17,184 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000
MktCap 78,764 111,742 5,467,403 5,467,403 5,467,403 5,467,403 5,467,403 5,467,403

Historical Multiples

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
EV/Revenue 6.5 7.5 267.1 266.4 270.6 254.0 243.5 228.1
EV/EBITDA 18.2 22.3 723.6 744.9 779.4 786.5 756.7 700.4
P/E 44.4 31.2 1168.7 1228.0 1362.8 1365.7 1298.9 1181.8
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