Diageo PLC
Consumer Staples
Europe
Investment summary

Diageo is the third by value company globally in total beverage alcohol (TBA). Diageo is #1 in International Spirits in retail sales value (RSV) globally, 1.4x larger than the nearest competitor. The company is the global leader in super-premium and above international spirits with a retail sales value of over £6.1bn. Diageo operates a portfolio of over 200 brands in different product categories and sells products in more than 180 countries. The company operates 132 sites globally. In 2020, the company announced the target to increase its value share of the total beverage alcohol (TBA) market from 4% to 6% by 2030 (4.6% TBA share was in 2022).

Details
Ticker
DGE.L
Trading currency
GBp
Last close price, (currency)
2,745.5
Common shares outstanding
2,237,266,150
Preferred shares
0
MktCap, (currency) mn
77,611
Target price
Current opinion
Description

Diageo PLC is a global alcoholic beverage company. The Company operates in various categories, including spirits and beer. The Company’s geographic segments include North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, America and the Caribbean, Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P). The Company’s principal products include Scotch whisky, Gin, Vodka, Rum, Beer, Irish Cream Liqueur, Wine, Raki, Tequila, Canadian Whisky, American Whiskey, Progressive Adult Beverages, Cachaca, Brandy, and Ready to Drink. Its brands include Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Buchanan’s and Windsor whiskies, Smirnoff, Ciroc, and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan, Baileys, Don Julio, Tanqueray, and Guinness. It also produces a... Diageo PLC is a global alcoholic beverage company. The Company operates in various categories, including spirits and beer. The Company’s geographic segments include North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, America and the Caribbean, Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P). The Company’s principal products include Scotch whisky, Gin, Vodka, Rum, Beer, Irish Cream Liqueur, Wine, Raki, Tequila, Canadian Whisky, American Whiskey, Progressive Adult Beverages, Cachaca, Brandy, and Ready to Drink. Its brands include Johnnie Walker, Crown Royal, J&B, Buchanan’s and Windsor whiskies, Smirnoff, Ciroc, and Ketel One vodkas, Captain Morgan, Baileys, Don Julio, Tanqueray, and Guinness. It also produces a range of ready-to-drink products mainly in the United Kingdom, Italy, South Africa, Australia, the United States, and Canada. The Company has approximately 200 brands and sells in more than 180 countries.

Industry view (TAM)

The total beverage alcohol (TBA) market is a resilient market with attractive long-term trends. The retail sales value of the total global alcohol market is $962bn in 2022 , which is c.5 billion total equivalent units of alcohol sold. The total beverage alcohol market is driven by global middle-class growth. An additional 600mn consumers are expected to come of age by 2032 (World Bank, 2022). Hundreds of millions of new consumers will be able to access premium brands in the coming years choosing "drink better, not more". Spirits penetration remain low  - there are only 50% of household purchase spirits every year in the US. However, consumer preferences changed during the pandemic with premium brands getting a higher market share. Premiumisation is a long-term trend, with the highest rice brands growing at more than double the international spirits category growth rate between 2016 and 2021. 

Pros
  1. Diageo benefits from a strong market position and a good brand portfolio
  2. Diageo is present in a super-premium segment with one of the highest growth rates in the TBA market
  3. The company targets an increase of market share in TBA to 6.0% by 2030 from 4% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2022
  4. The company responds to environmental changes by implementing sustainability practices. It also develops sustainable sourcing from emerging countries, including Africa, South America, and India
  5. Diageo follows a policy of return to shareholders, both via dividend payouts and buyback programs.
  6. Strong position in the US with 7.4% share of TBA, and two largest brands getting 16% household penetration.
Cons
  1. High feedstock inflation, including soaring prices of soft commodities represents a risk for the company's margin
  2. Weak macro in target markets may result in slow demand growth in premium and super-premium segments
  3. The post-pandemic weak environment represents a serious interruption for the company's business, for example in China
  4. Supply chain disruptions due to global macro risks and consumer preferences change may result in a risk for production volumes
  5. The company is exposed to regulatory changes in countries it produces and sells products
Risks
  1. Regulatory changes, trade barriers, direct and indirect taxes
  2. Global macro and geopolitical risks, including inflation and commodity markets volatility
  3. Pandemic and business interruptions
  4. Climate change and sustainability affect production and sourcing practices, as well as investment decisions
  5. Supply chain risks
  6. Changing consumer preferences
  7. Competition from existing and new brands
Historical price chart
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Peer Group (top 5)

Company RIC Market Capitalization, $mn Last reporting year P/E Fwd 1Y P/E Fwd 2Y EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd EV/Revenues 1y fwd EV/Revenues 2y fwd
Diageo PLC DGE.L 82,388 2023-06-30 19.6 18.7 15.3 14.8 5.1 4.9
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE LVMH.PA 452,547 2023-12-31 25.9 23.5 15.1 13.8 5.0 4.6
Pernod Ricard SA PERP.PA 41,498 2023-06-30 18.2 17.0 13.9 13.2 4.3 4.1
Heineken NV HEIN.AS 55,711 2023-12-31 18.6 15.8 10.1 9.4 2.2 2.1
Remy Cointreau SA RCOP.PA 5,185 2023-03-31 25.3 23.0 15.5 14.1 4.4 4.2
Carlsberg A/S CARLb.CO 19,659 2023-12-31 17.1 15.4 10.2 9.6 2.1 2.0
Financials
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue 15,273 16,366 16,647 14,799 17,128 20,536 20,586 20,768 21,487 22,622
Growth 7% 2% -11% 16% 20% 0% 1% 3% 5%
EBITDA 5,013 5,622 5,803 5,283 5,775 7,579 7,362 6,965 7,245 7,809
EBITDA margin 32.8% 34.4% 34.9% 35.7% 33.7% 36.9% 35.8% 33.5% 33.7% 34.5%
Net income 3,374 4,066 4,088 1,774 3,578 4,678 4,452 4,442 4,446 4,766
Net margin 22.1% 24.8% 24.6% 12.0% 20.9% 22.8% 21.6% 21.4% 20.7% 21.1%
Net debt 10,433 12,095 14,758 17,184 17,000 17,135 17,135 17,135 17,135 17,135
MktCap 100,530 91,884 127,553 6,833,968 6,833,968 6,833,968 6,833,968 6,833,968

Historical Multiples

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
EV/Revenue 6.9 7.4 8.4 333.6 332.8 329.9 318.8 302.9
EV/EBITDA 19.9 20.6 25.0 904.0 930.6 983.6 945.6 877.3
P/E 24.6 51.8 35.6 1460.9 1535.0 1538.5 1537.1 1433.9
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