Mosaic is one of the largest publicly traded fertiliser producers globally with over 11mt potash capacity and over 16mt phosphate capacity. The company has a strong position in premium North and South American markets via Mosaic Fertilizantes company. Global operations of Mosaic include the equity share in MWSPC (Saudi Arabia). The company operates at a competitive cost, and benefits from economy of scale and access to final customers.
The Mosaic Company is a producer and marketer of phosphate and potash fertilisers. Mosaic segments include Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates business segment owns and operates mines and production facilities with a total capacity of c17mt per year. The Potash business segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in Canada and the United States, which produce potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. The potash capacity is 11.2mt per year. The Mosaic Fertilizantes business segment includes five Brazilian phosphate rock mines, four phosphate chemical plants, and a potash mine in Brazil with a 5mt p.a. phosphate... The Mosaic Company is a producer and marketer of phosphate and potash fertilisers. Mosaic segments include Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The Phosphates business segment owns and operates mines and production facilities with a total capacity of c17mt per year. The Potash business segment owns and operates potash mines and production facilities in Canada and the United States, which produce potash-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and industrial products. The potash capacity is 11.2mt per year. The Mosaic Fertilizantes business segment includes five Brazilian phosphate rock mines, four phosphate chemical plants, and a potash mine in Brazil with a 5mt p.a. phosphate capacity. It also includes its distribution business in South America, which consists of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouses in Brazil and Paraguay.
The global fertiliser market is affected by low stocks, production disruptions, and high feedstock prices. The high level of soft commodity prices and positive farmers' economics, however, were supportive of the fertiliser demand over the last year. The global phosphate shipments, including DAP/MAP/ NPS/TSP, are estimated at 74-77mt in 2024. Potash deliveries may reach 69-72mt in 2024 compared to 65mt in 2023.
- Mosaic operates large global potash and phosphate capacities
- The company's cost of potash production went down in 2022, following the K3 potash mine ramp-up to 5.5mt
- Mosaic has a long-term agreement with nitrogen feedstock supplier CF, which reduces its exposure to a gas price growth
- Fertiliser demand remains strong, while supply is constrained due to Russian and Belarus fertiliser export restrictions
- Mosaic demonstrated a strong financial performance
- Mosaic Fertilizantes became the largest fertiliser distributor in Brazil
- Exposure to high energy prices, which affect cost side and product pricing
- The potential downside for fertiliser prices once the potash and phosphate supply from CIS is restored
- A high level of soft commodity prices is affected by the war conflict in Ukraine and may go down once the conflict abates
- North American fertiliser suppliers may lose their market share in Asia in favor of CIS producers following geopolitical changes
- Cost inflation will likely affect the production cost
- High energy prices and drive feedstock prices up
- Geopolitical risks affect trading volumes on export destinations
- Cost inflation
- Downside risk for soft commodities prices
- Transportation disruptions may affect delivery volumes
| Company | RIC | Market Capitalization, $mn | Last reporting year | P/E Fwd 1Y | P/E Fwd 2Y | EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd | EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd | EV/Revenues 1y fwd | EV/Revenues 2y fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosaic Co | MOS.N | 10,297 | 2023-12-31 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| CF Industries Holdings Inc | CF.N | 15,508 | 2023-12-31 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Yara International ASA | YAR.OL | 8,110 | 2023-12-31 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| K&S AG | SDFGn.DE | 2,804 | 2023-12-31 | 38.1 | 17.2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Nutrien Ltd | NTR.N | 26,501 | 2023-12-31 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| ICL Group Ltd | ICL.TA | 6,822 | 2022-12-31 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,409 | 9,587 | 8,906 | 8,682 | 12,357 | 19,125 | 13,696 | 14,702 | 15,181 | 15,950 |
| Growth | 29% | -7% | -3% | 42% | 55% | -28% | 7% | 3% | 5% | |
| EBITDA | 1,139 | 1,957 | 1,398 | 1,558 | 3,585 | 6,330 | 2,761 | 2,023 | 2,187 | 2,296 |
| EBITDA margin | 15.4% | 20.4% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 29.0% | 33.1% | 20.2% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 14.4% |
| Net income | -107 | 470 | -1,067 | 666 | 1,631 | 3,583 | 1,165 | 815 | 995 | 1,104 |
| Net margin | -1.4% | 4.9% | -12.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Net debt | 3,074 | 3,681 | 4,095 | 4,004 | 3,512 | 3,512 | 3,512 | 3,512 | 3,512 | 3,512 |
| MktCap | 8,940 | 10,200 | 8,298 | 8,670 | 14,816 | 12,135 | 12,135 | 12,135 | 12,135 | 12,135 |
Historical Multiples
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| P/E | -83.4 | 21.7 | -7.8 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 10.4 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 11.0 |
