Exxon Mobil is one of the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies globally, and one of the largest refiners and marketers of petroleum products with upstream production of 3.7MOEBD (2021) and downstream and chemical production of 234MTA. The company's reserves included 9bn bbl of oil liquids and 38trln cf of natural gas as of the end 2020.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a range of specialty products. The Company's segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures, trades and sells petroleum products. The refining and supply operations encompass a global network of manufacturing plants, transportation systems, and distribution centers that provide a rang... Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a range of specialty products. The Company's segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures, trades and sells petroleum products. The refining and supply operations encompass a global network of manufacturing plants, transportation systems, and distribution centers that provide a range of fuels, lubricants and other products and feedstocks to its customers around the world. The Chemical segment is organized and operates to manufacture and sell petrochemicals. The Chemical business supplies olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and a variety of other petrochemicals.
According to EIA, the global oil production is estimated at 95.55mn bbl/day in 2021 compared to 93.87mn bbl/day in 2020. The largest oil producing regions are OPEC countries (33% in 2021), USA (20%), Russia (11%), Canada (6%), China and Brazil. The oil price reached $71/bbl in 2021 compared to $42/bbl in 2020. The oil demand was driven by the post-COVID recovery of industrial production and air transportation globally. The political turbulence created a risk of undersupply in 2022, driving the oil price above $100/bbl. Medium-term trends will be affected by the transition to low-carbon energy. Companies of the energy sector are targeting potentially large markets of Carbon Capture and Storage ($4 trln by 2050), Hydrogen ($1.5 trln) and Biofuelds ($1 trln). The traditional Oil and Gas market is estimated at $6.5trln in 2050 and the Chemicals market is estimated at $5trln in 2050.
- Exxon Mobil has a large portfolio of assets gradually upgraded through investments and mix improvements
- Highest earnings among international oil companies in 2021
- A potential to double earnings and cash flow by 2027 versus 2019, lowering breakeven from $41/boe in 2021 to $30/bbl in 2027
- Large and efficient refining capacity with opportunities to repurse assets for production of low-cost biofuelds
- Global leader in carbon capture, representing one-fifth of global capacity (9MTA),
- Sustainable dividend history with 39 consecutive years of annual dividend growth, including $15bn dividend payout in 2021
- Limited growth opportunities due to already high scale of operations
- Exposure to falling oil demand in longer-term due to transition to low-carbon energy
- High capex requirements for alternative energy opportunities, including CCS, Hydrogen and Biofuels
- Exposure to political risks and volitile oil price
- Relatively high breakeven compared to junior peers, limited upside for margin improvement
- Oil price volatility
- Weak demand for oil and gas products, chemicals due to global growth deceleration
- Cost inflation
- Geopolitical risks
- Risks of transition to low-carbon energy, including technology and demand risks
| Company | RIC | Market Capitalization, $mn | Last reporting year | P/E Fwd 1Y | P/E Fwd 2Y | EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd | EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd | EV/Revenues 1y fwd | EV/Revenues 2y fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corp | XOM.N | 444,267 | 2022-12-31 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Chevron Corp | CVX.N | 306,040 | 2022-12-31 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| BP PLC | BP.L | 117,445 | 2022-12-31 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTEF.PA | 152,918 | 2022-12-31 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Shell PLC | SHEL.L | 209,988 | 2022-12-31 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC | 2010.SE | 72,243 | 2022-12-31 | 18.8 | 15.8 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 237,162 | 279,332 | 255,583 | 178,574 | 276,692 | 413,680 | 397,994 | 378,345 | 339,030 |
| Growth | 18% | -9% | -30% | 55% | 50% | -4% | -5% | -10% | |
| EBITDA | 31,967 | 40,013 | 27,007 | 15,356 | 43,563 | 87,586 | 86,342 | 81,233 | 72,762 |
| EBITDA margin | 13.5% | 14.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 21.2% | 21.7% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Net income | 19,710 | 20,840 | 14,340 | -22,440 | 23,040 | 55,740 | 43,677 | 39,599 | 34,486 |
| Net margin | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | -12.6% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% |
| Net debt | 39,159 | 34,754 | 43,985 | 63,415 | 41,037 | 41,037 | 41,037 | 41,037 | 41,037 |
| MktCap | 295,658 | 174,525 | 259,017 | 461,947 | 461,947 | 461,947 | 461,947 |
Historical Multiples
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| P/E | 20.6 | -7.8 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 13.4 |
