Exxon Mobil Corp
Energy
North America
Investment summary

Exxon Mobil is one of the largest publicly traded oil and gas companies globally, and one of the largest refiners and marketers of petroleum products with upstream production of 3.7MOEBD (2023). Exxon forecasts production of 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2024. Exxon posted full-year net income of $36bn for 2023, down from $55.7bn the previous year, but otherwise its biggest profit since 2012.

Details
Ticker
XOM.N
Trading currency
USD
Last close price, (currency)
115.48
Common shares outstanding
3,971,000,000
Preferred shares
0
MktCap, (currency) mn
518,035
Target price
Current opinion
Description

Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a range of specialty products. The Company's segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures, trades and sells petroleum products. The refining and supply operations encompass a global network of manufacturing plants, transportation systems, and distribution centers that provide a rang... Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a range of specialty products. The Company's segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical. The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures, trades and sells petroleum products. The refining and supply operations encompass a global network of manufacturing plants, transportation systems, and distribution centers that provide a range of fuels, lubricants and other products and feedstocks to its customers around the world. The Chemical segment is organized and operates to manufacture and sell petrochemicals. The Chemical business supplies olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and a variety of other petrochemicals.

Industry view (TAM)

World oil demand is is estimated at 101.7 mb/d in 2023. The largest oil producing regions are OPEC countries (33% ), USA (20%), Russia (11%), Canada (6%), China and Brazil. The energy markets stabilised in 2023 with the oil price staying between 75 and 90$/bbl throughout the year. Medium-term trends will be affected by the transition to low-carbon energy. Companies of the energy sector are targeting potentially large markets of Carbon Capture and Storage ($4 trln by 2050), Hydrogen ($1.5 trln) and Biofuelds ($1 trln). The traditional Oil and Gas market is estimated at $6.5trln in 2050 and the Chemicals market is estimated at $5trln in 2050.

Pros
  1. Exxon Mobil has a large portfolio of assets gradually upgraded through investments and mix improvements
  2. One of highest earnings among international oil companies in 2023
  3. A potential to double earnings and cash flow by 2027 versus 2019, lowering breakeven to $30/bbl in 2027
  4. Large and efficient refining capacity with opportunities to repurse assets for production of low-cost biofuelds
  5. Global leader in carbon capture, representing one-fifth of global capacity (9MTA),
  6. Sustainable dividend history with 39 consecutive years of annual dividend growth, including $15bn dividend payout in
  7. Returned >$32 billion to shareholders, including ~$17.5bn of share repurchases in 2023
Cons
  1. Limited growth opportunities due to already high scale of operations
  2. Exposure to falling oil demand in longer-term due to transition to low-carbon energy
  3. High capex requirements for alternative energy opportunities, including CCS, Hydrogen and Biofuels
  4. Exposure to political risks and volitile oil price
  5. Relatively high breakeven compared to junior peers, limited upside for margin improvement
Risks
  1. Oil price volatility
  2. Weak demand for oil and gas products, chemicals due to global growth deceleration
  3. Cost inflation
  4. Geopolitical risks
  5. Risks of transition to low-carbon energy, including technology and demand risks
Historical price chart
Loading...
Peer Group (top 5)

Company RIC Market Capitalization, $mn Last reporting year P/E Fwd 1Y P/E Fwd 2Y EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd EV/Revenues 1y fwd EV/Revenues 2y fwd
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM.N 461,222 2023-12-31 13.0 11.9 6.4 6.0 1.5 1.5
Chevron Corp CVX.N 292,966 2023-12-31 12.8 11.0 6.1 5.3 1.6 1.6
BP PLC BP.L 105,831 2023-12-31 7.6 6.9 3.7 3.7 0.8 0.8
TotalEnergies SE TTEF.PA 164,007 2023-12-31 7.7 7.7 4.1 4.2 0.8 0.8
Shell PLC SHEL.L 213,564 2023-12-31 8.2 8.1 4.0 4.2 0.8 0.8
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC 2010.SE 62,470 2023-12-31 32.0 16.9 9.7 7.2 1.7 1.6
Financials
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue 237,162 279,332 255,583 178,574 276,692 398,675 334,697 330,976 343,918 329,545
Growth 18% -9% -30% 55% 44% -16% -1% 4% -4%
EBITDA 31,967 40,013 30,788 17,002 45,912 92,042 67,783 72,814 79,620 77,466
EBITDA margin 13.5% 14.3% 12.0% 9.5% 16.6% 23.1% 20.3% 22.0% 23.2% 23.5%
Net income 19,710 20,840 14,340 -22,440 23,040 55,740 36,010 36,552 39,481 39,359
Net margin 8.3% 7.5% 5.6% -12.6% 8.3% 14.0% 10.8% 11.0% 11.5% 11.9%
Net debt 39,159 34,754 43,985 63,415 41,037 41,038 41,039 41,039 41,039 41,039
MktCap 295,658 174,525 259,017 492,044 492,044 492,044 492,044 492,044

Historical Multiples

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
EV/Revenue 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
EV/EBITDA 11.0 14.0 6.5 5.8 7.9 7.3 6.7 6.9
P/E 20.6 -7.8 11.2 8.8 13.7 13.5 12.5 12.5
Charts