Rio Tinto PLC
Materials
North America
Investment summary

Rio Tinto is one of the largest iron ore producers in the world. In 2023, the company produced 331.8 million tons of iron ore (on a 100% basis) in Australia's Pilbara region. The company also reported aluminum output of 3.3 million tons and bauxite production of 54.6 million tons in 2023. Mined copper production reached 620 kt. With a strong market position in iron ore for the steelmaking industry, Rio Tinto is one of the most influential players in the global metals market. The company benefits from vertical integration, controlling both mining and refining operations, and from its large scale of operations, which helps keep operating costs under control. While Rio Tinto has capitalized on rising commodity prices in the post-COVID environment, lockdowns in China negatively impacted steelmaking performance throughout 2022-2023.

Details
Ticker
RIO.L
Trading currency
GBp
Last close price, (currency)
5,007.0
Common shares outstanding
1,622,531,000
Preferred shares
0
MktCap, (currency) mn
108,382
Target price
Current opinion
Description

Rio Tinto plc is a UK-based metals and mining company operating across several segments: Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, Corporate, and Minerals. The company has an integrated portfolio of iron ore assets, including a network of 17 mines, four independent port terminals, and a rail system spanning approximately 2,000 kilometers. The Aluminium business comprises four bauxite mines located in Australia, Brazil, and Guinea; four alumina refineries in Australia, Brazil, and Canada; 14 aluminum smelters in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Oman; and seven hydropower plants in Canada. The Copper segment includes three copper operations in the United States, Mongolia, and Chile, as well as three c... Rio Tinto plc is a UK-based metals and mining company operating across several segments: Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, Corporate, and Minerals. The company has an integrated portfolio of iron ore assets, including a network of 17 mines, four independent port terminals, and a rail system spanning approximately 2,000 kilometers. The Aluminium business comprises four bauxite mines located in Australia, Brazil, and Guinea; four alumina refineries in Australia, Brazil, and Canada; 14 aluminum smelters in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Oman; and seven hydropower plants in Canada. The Copper segment includes three copper operations in the United States, Mongolia, and Chile, as well as three copper projects in the United States, Mongolia, and Australia. Additionally, the company produces gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metals as by-products of its copper operations. The Minerals segment spans four key sectors: borates, titanium dioxide, iron ore, and diamonds. The Commercial segment manages global sales and marketing, procurement, and marine and logistics operations. Rio Tinto operates in 35 countries worldwide, leveraging its extensive asset base and diverse portfolio to meet the global demand for critical materials.

Industry view (TAM)

In 2023, global production of usable iron ore was estimated at 2.5 billion tons (bt). The largest iron ore-producing countries include Australia (approximately 900 million tons per annum), Brazil (380 million tons), China (360 million tons), India (240 million tons), and Russia (100 million tons). Crude steel production reached 1.89 bt in 2023, with China’s crude steel accounting for 54% of total output. In 2024, growth in steel-consuming sectors is expected to decline more sharply than previously estimated (-2.7% compared to -1.6%). This is driven by a second consecutive recession in the construction sector and the first downturn in the automotive sector since 2020.

Pros
  1. A vast resource base, including significant operations in Australia’s largest iron ore region.
  2. The large scale of operations offers flexibility in controlling cash costs.
  3. A diversified product range, supported by a substantial portfolio of by-products, contributes positively to both revenue and margins.
  4. In-house delivery capabilities and marketing ensure competitive market pricing and help maintain strong customer relationships.
  5. Demand recovery in China is expected to drive higher prices and volumes in 2025-26.
Cons
  1. Exposure to volatile commodity markets, with potential price declines driven by a weak macroeconomic environment.
  2. Increasing cash costs due to inflationary pressures, particularly rising energy prices.
  3. Vulnerability to geopolitical risks, including strained relations between China and Western countries.
  4. Exposure to local currencies in producing countries, as well as the influence of local macroeconomic trends and inflation.
Risks
  1. Geopolitical Risks: Vulnerability to political instability and tensions in key operating regions.
  2. Macroeconomic Risks: Exposure to global economic downturns that may impact demand and pricing.
  3. Foreign Exchange Risks: Fluctuations in local currencies of producing countries against the US dollar.
  4. Project Execution Risks: Potential challenges in successfully completing mining projects on time and within budget.
  5. ESG Risks: Environmental, social, and governance concerns in producing countries that could affect operations and reputation.
Historical price chart
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Peer Group (top 5)

Company RIC Market Capitalization, $mn Last reporting year P/E Fwd 1Y P/E Fwd 2Y EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd EV/Revenues 1y fwd EV/Revenues 2y fwd
Rio Tinto PLC RIO.L 108,382 2023-12-31 9.4 9.4 4.9 4.8 2.2 2.2
Anglo American PLC AAL.L 42,495 2023-12-31 17.6 16.6 6.6 6.3 2.1 2.3
Glencore PLC GLEN.L 58,463 2023-12-31 15.0 11.6 5.6 4.7 0.3 0.3
BHP Group Ltd BHP.AX 135,030 2024-06-30 11.4 11.6 5.4 5.4 2.8 2.8
Antofagasta PLC ANTO.L 21,853 2023-12-31 29.9 22.6 7.5 6.4 3.8 3.5
Vale SA VALE3.SA 43,911 2023-12-31 4.6 5.3 3.5 3.3 1.4 1.3
Financials
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue 40,030 40,522 43,165 44,611 63,495 55,554 54,041 53,134 52,493 52,953
Growth 1% 7% 3% 42% -13% -3% -2% -1% 1%
EBITDA 17,945 17,618 21,087 23,868 36,797 26,090 23,671 23,128 23,353 23,614
EBITDA margin 44.8% 43.5% 48.9% 53.5% 58.0% 47.0% 43.8% 43.5% 44.5% 44.6%
Net income 8,762 13,638 8,010 9,769 21,115 12,392 10,058 11,108 10,984 10,857
Net margin 21.9% 33.7% 18.6% 21.9% 33.3% 22.3% 18.6% 20.9% 20.9% 20.5%
Net debt 3,571 -625 3,476 773 -1,757 -1,757 -1,757 -1,757 -1,757 -1,757
MktCap 94,582 116,448 106,254 8,101,897 8,101,897 8,101,897 8,101,897 8,101,897

Historical Multiples

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
EV/Revenue 2.3 2.6 1.6 145.8 149.9 152.4 154.3 153.0
EV/EBITDA 4.7 4.9 2.8 310.5 342.2 350.2 346.9 343.0
P/E 11.8 11.9 5.0 653.8 805.5 729.4 737.6 746.2
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