Udemy Inc
Consumer Discretionary
North America
Investment summary

Udemy is an online learning platform connecting learners with instructors. The platform enables learners to upgrade their skills in an efficient and affordable way. The Monthly Average Buyers in the Consumer segment was 1.31mn in 3Q24. Udemy The company operates in two segments: Consumer and Enterprise. Business customers reached 16,848, with the Annual Recurring Revenue totaling $504.6mn in 3Q24. Several factors contribute to Udemy's popularity: Affordability of education, A large offering of courses in 75 languages, Global support for learners, Interactive learning experiences, Personalized and immersive learning powered by a data-driven platform utilizing machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), and Instructor ratings that guide learners in selecting quality courses. Udemy completed its IPO at $29 per share in October 2021, marking a significant milestone in its grow... Udemy is an online learning platform connecting learners with instructors. The platform enables learners to upgrade their skills in an efficient and affordable way. The Monthly Average Buyers in the Consumer segment was 1.31mn in 3Q24. Udemy The company operates in two segments: Consumer and Enterprise. Business customers reached 16,848, with the Annual Recurring Revenue totaling $504.6mn in 3Q24. Several factors contribute to Udemy's popularity: Affordability of education, A large offering of courses in 75 languages, Global support for learners, Interactive learning experiences, Personalized and immersive learning powered by a data-driven platform utilizing machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), and Instructor ratings that guide learners in selecting quality courses. Udemy completed its IPO at $29 per share in October 2021, marking a significant milestone in its growth journey.

Details
Ticker
UDMY.O
Trading currency
USD
Last close price, (currency)
8.45
Common shares outstanding
157,166,360
Preferred shares
0
MktCap, (currency) mn
1,233
Target price
13.53
Current opinion
BUY
Description

Udemy provides an online learning platform for teaching and learning. The Company offers over 210k courses from over 75k instructors on its learning platform in technical skills, business skills and personal development. The Company operates through two segments: Consumer and Enterprise. The company's courses can be accessed through its direct-to-consumer or Udemy Business (UB) offerings.

Industry view (TAM)

A changing work environment has created a growing demand for upskilling and reskilling the workforce. Online educational platforms have become a critical component of workforce reskilling, particularly during the pandemic, while also offering a wide range of personal development courses. According to Udemy, 84% of employers surveyed reported that COVID-19 increased the need for digitalization. The e-learning market opportunity was valued at $166 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow to $476 billion by 2027, including an increase in corporate learning from $69 billion to $171 billion. Key pillars of the online education model include: Quality and relevance of the content, Adaptability to rapidly changing market demands, Affordability, and Tools that support organizations, such as analytics and insights, administrative tools, customer support, and integration solutions. For organizations, online education platforms offer scalable solutions that align with workforce development goals, making them an essential resource in today's evolving business environment.

Pros
  1. Quality Assurance: Udemy offers high-quality courses evaluated by independent learners, with real-time ratings reflecting the content's quality and relevance.
  2. Adaptable Content: Content creators respond swiftly to changing market demands, regularly updating courses to stay relevant.
  3. Industry Expertise: Courses are taught by industry experts, ensuring real-world applicability and value for learners.
  4. Affordability: Udemy provides a range of free and affordable courses, making education accessible to a broader audience.
  5. Language Inclusivity: Courses are available in national languages, catering to diverse global audiences.
  6. Advanced Technology: Udemy leverages machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to recommend relevant courses and offer comprehensive analytics and administrative tools for enterprises.
  7. Sustainable Growth: The company has demonstrated consistent growth over recent years and operates one of the largest global platforms by user base.
  8. Expanding Market Opportunity: Udemy benefits from exposure to the growing Consumer and Enterprise e-learning markets. Geographical Diversification: Udemy enjoys strong demand for upskilling in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America, supporting its global presence.
Cons
  1. History of Losses: Udemy has a track record of financial losses and may face challenges in generating sufficient revenue to achieve breakeven.
  2. Slowing Consumer Segment Growth: Recent results indicate weak performance in the Consumer segment, with revenue and user statistics showing signs of growth deceleration.
  3. Intense Competition: Operating in a highly competitive sector, Udemy may be impacted by the stronger positioning and offerings of rival platforms.
  4. Dependence on Content Producers: The company relies heavily on content creators, who may shift their preferences or leave the platform, potentially affecting course availability.
  5. Changing User Preferences: Shifts in user preferences between online and traditional education models could impact Udemy’s growth.
  6. Limited Focus on Credentials: Udemy does not emphasize diplomas or certificates, which are often preferred by learners seeking formal qualifications on other online platforms.
Risks
  1. Increasing Competition: Growing competition in the online education sector may reduce the number of users and instructors choosing Udemy, negatively impacting its business.
  2. Dependence on Content Creators: The loss of popular content creators could significantly affect Udemy’s revenue streams and diminish its content offering.
  3. Negative Margins: Operating with negative margins, Udemy may need to secure additional financing in the future to sustain operations and growth.
  4. Revenue Growth Deceleration: The company may experience slowing revenue growth, particularly in its Consumer segment, which could hinder overall financial performance.
  5. Intellectual Property Risks: Any intellectual property litigation related to content on the platform could result in substantial costs and adversely impact Udemy’s business.
Historical price chart
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Peer Group (top 5)

Company RIC Market Capitalization, $mn Last reporting year P/E Fwd 1Y P/E Fwd 2Y EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd EV/Revenues 1y fwd EV/Revenues 2y fwd
Udemy Inc UDMY.O 1,233 2023-12-31 73.0 23.5 24.7 12.7 1.1 1.1
Coursera Inc COUR.N 1,315 2023-12-31 27.3 23.9 15.9 10.9 0.9 0.8
Chegg Inc CHGG.N 256 2023-12-31 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.8 0.8 1.0
Stride Inc LRN.N 4,797 2024-06-30 16.8 15.0 9.3 8.5 2.1 1.9
Duolingo Inc DUOL.OQ 15,878 2023-12-31 177.9 119.2 78.9 54.5 20.2 15.5
Asana Inc ASAN.N 3,464 2024-01-31 4.1 3.7
Financials
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue 276 430 518 629 729 781 808 875
Growth 56% 21% 21% 16% 7% 3% 8%
EBITDA -50 -31 -28 -49 8 34 68 124
EBITDA margin -18.2% -7.1% -5.4% -7.8% 1.1% 4.4% 8.5% 14.2%
Net income -70 -78 -41 -68 2 18 57 100
Net margin -25.2% -18.1% -8.0% -10.9% 0.3% 2.3% 7.0% 11.4%
Net debt -49 -175 -534 -314 -306 -260 -234 -242
MktCap 2,685 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161

Historical Multiples

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
EV/Revenue 4.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
EV/EBITDA -77.0 -17.3 109.6 26.2 13.6 7.4
P/E -65.0 -17.0 606.4 64.3 20.5 11.6
Charts