Uber Technologies is one of the largest ride-hailing and Delivery platforms globally with leading positions in the top 10 markets. Uber operates in more than 10k cities in 70 countries globally. The number of Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) increased by 14.5% YoY to 150mn in 4Q23. Monthly active drivers and couriers on Uber exceeded 6.5mn.
Uber Technologies operates a ride-hailing and delivery platform. Uber connects drivers, couriers, merchants, and food delivery services with consumers. Uber provides services in three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. Mobility products connect consumers with drivers who provide rides in a variety of vehicles, such as cars, auto-rickshaws, motorbikes, minibusses, or taxis. The delivery platform allows consumers to find, depending on their location, local restaurants, grocery, alcohol, and convenience stores for either delivery or pick up. The freight platform connects carriers with shippers, provides carriers upfront, and enables shipment booking.
The total addressable market (TAM) is estimated at $5trln for Mobility, $5trln for Delivery, and $4trln for Freight. The global restaurant spend of $1.8trln and grocery spend of $2.5trln are Delivery TAMs. Key Mobility sector growth drivers include deepening core rides penetration, expansion of use cases, scaling of low-cost products, and transition to electric & autonomous vehicles. Ridesharing penetration is still very low even in the largest markets: from 0.3% in Germany to 8.8% in Brazil.
- Uber has a strong market position in its core markets, including the US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, and Europe.
- Integrated model for earners and one-window entry for consumers help to increase engagement.
- A potential to win market share from rivals with narrower offerings
- Scalability of the platform shows potential to grow in new markets
- Financial improvements and focus on profitable growth
- Long history of loss-making operations, negative bottom line
- Regulatory adjustments may affect the business model
- High competition
- A negative effect of COVID and high fuel prices on business
- The downside from revaluation of equity investments due to a market correction
- High inflation
- Slow down in mobility trends
- Price competition in the sector
- Regulatory risks
- High fuel costs
| Company | RIC | Market Capitalization, $mn | Last reporting year | P/E Fwd 1Y | P/E Fwd 2Y | EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd | EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd | EV/Revenues 1y fwd | EV/Revenues 2y fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies Inc | UBER.N | 162,589 | 2023-12-31 | 58.2 | 35.8 | 27.6 | 20.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Lyft Inc | LYFT.OQ | 7,788 | 2023-12-31 | 28.9 | 22.1 | 20.9 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Amazon.com Inc | AMZN.OQ | 1,867,963 | 2023-12-31 | 42.3 | 33.2 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Aptiv PLC | APTV.N | 21,443 | 2023-12-31 | 13.6 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Tesla Inc | TSLA.OQ | 572,721 | 2023-12-31 | 68.0 | 48.5 | 36.3 | 31.4 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Apple Inc | AAPL.OQ | 2,676,232 | 2023-09-30 | 26.3 | 24.1 | 20.5 | 19.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,932 | 11,270 | 13,000 | 11,139 | 17,455 | 31,877 | 37,281 | 41,847 | 45,275 | 48,724 |
| Growth | 42% | 15% | -14% | 57% | 83% | 17% | 12% | 8% | 8% | |
| EBITDA | -2,642 | -1,867 | -3,431 | -2,528 | -774 | 1,713 | 4,052 | 5,902 | 7,000 | 8,133 |
| EBITDA margin | -33.3% | -16.6% | -26.4% | -22.7% | -4.4% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| Net income | -4,033 | 987 | -8,512 | -6,788 | -570 | -9,138 | 2,156 | 1,823 | 2,681 | 3,563 |
| Net margin | -50.8% | 8.8% | -65.5% | -60.9% | -3.3% | -28.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% |
| Net debt | -917 | 490 | -3,986 | 2,202 | 6,179 | 6,148 | 6,148 | 6,148 | 6,148 | 6,148 |
| MktCap | 50,038 | 87,551 | 77,562 | 144,487 | 144,487 | 144,487 | 144,487 | 144,487 |
Historical Multiples
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | 3.5 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | -13.4 | -35.5 | -108.2 | 87.9 | 37.2 | 25.5 | 21.5 | 18.5 |
| P/E | -5.9 | -12.9 | -136.1 | -15.8 | 67.0 | 79.3 | 53.9 | 40.6 |
