Uber Technologies is one of the largest ride-hailing and delivery platforms in the world, maintaining leading positions in the top 10 global markets. The company operates in over 10,000 cities across 70 countries. In Q3 2024, Uber's Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) reached 161 million, while the number of monthly active drivers and couriers exceeded 7.8 million. Active merchant growth achieved a record 16% year-over-year (YoY) during the quarter. Additionally, Delivery MAPCs reached 50 million in September 2024, marking a new milestone for the platform.
Uber Technologies operates a ride-hailing and delivery platform, connecting drivers, couriers, merchants, and food delivery services with consumers. The company operates through three main segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. Mobility: This segment connects consumers with drivers who provide rides using various types of vehicles, including cars, auto-rickshaws, motorbikes, minibuses, and taxis. Delivery: Uber's delivery platform enables consumers to access local restaurants, grocery stores, alcohol vendors, and convenience stores for delivery or pickup, based on their location. Freight: The freight platform facilitates connections between carriers and shippers, offering upfront pricing and streamlined shipment booking.
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for Uber is estimated at $5 trillion for Mobility, $5 trillion for Delivery, and $4 trillion for Freight. Within Delivery, the global restaurant spend of $1.8 trillion and grocery spend of $2.5 trillion represent key TAM components. Growth in the Mobility sector is driven by several factors, including: - Deepening core rides penetration in existing markets, - Expansion of use cases, such as commuting and leisure travel, - Scaling low-cost products, enabling greater affordability, and - The transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, reflecting future-oriented innovation. - Despite the large market potential, ridesharing penetration remains relatively low, highlighting significant room for growth.
- Strong Market Position: Uber maintains a leading presence in its core markets, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, and Europe.
- Integrated Model: The platform's integrated model for earners and one-window entry for consumers enhances user engagement and loyalty.
- Competitive Advantage: Uber has the potential to capture market share from competitors with narrower offerings.
- Scalability: The platform's scalability enables growth opportunities in new and emerging markets.
- Financial Improvements: A focus on profitability and sustainable growth underscores Uber's commitment to financial performance.
- History of Loss-Making Operations: Uber has faced challenges with a long history of operating losses and a consistently negative bottom line.
- Regulatory Risks: Adjustments in regulations may impact Uber's business model and operational flexibility.
- Intense Competition: The ride-hailing and delivery sectors are highly competitive, with numerous global and local players vying for market share.
- External Challenges: The business has been negatively affected by events such as COVID-19 disruptions and rising fuel prices.
- Equity Investment Risks: Market corrections pose a downside risk due to the revaluation of equity investments.
- Macro-Economic Slowdown and Inflation: Broader economic challenges and rising inflation could dampen consumer spending and demand.
- Mobility Trend Slowdown: A deceleration in mobility trends could negatively impact growth in the ride-hailing segment.
- Price Competition: Intense price competition within the sector may pressure margins and profitability.
- Regulatory Risks: Changing regulations across regions pose potential challenges to operations and business models.
- Fuel Cost Volatility: Fluctuating fuel prices can increase operational costs and impact profitability.
| Company | RIC | Market Capitalization, $mn | Last reporting year | P/E Fwd 1Y | P/E Fwd 2Y | EV/EBITDA 1Y fwd | EV/EBITDA 2Y fwd | EV/Revenues 1y fwd | EV/Revenues 2y fwd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies Inc | UBER.N | 150,074 | 2023-12-31 | 38.1 | 29.2 | 23.7 | 17.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Lyft Inc | LYFT.OQ | 7,019 | 2023-12-31 | 18.7 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 12.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Amazon.com Inc | AMZN.OQ | 2,244,324 | 2023-12-31 | 41.4 | 34.5 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Aptiv PLC | APTV.N | 13,094 | 2023-12-31 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Apple Inc | AAPL.OQ | 3,667,854 | 2024-09-28 | 32.7 | 28.9 | 25.6 | 23.4 | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| CH Robinson Worldwide Inc | CHRW.OQ | 12,719 | 2023-12-31 | 24.5 | 22.3 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,932 | 11,270 | 13,000 | 11,139 | 17,455 | 31,877 | 37,281 | 43,770 | 50,620 | 58,635 |
| Growth | 42% | 15% | -14% | 57% | 83% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 16% | |
| EBITDA | -2,642 | -1,867 | -3,431 | -2,528 | -774 | 1,713 | 4,052 | 6,391 | 8,515 | 11,005 |
| EBITDA margin | -33.3% | -16.6% | -26.4% | -22.7% | -4.4% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| Net income | -4,033 | 987 | -8,512 | -6,788 | -570 | -9,138 | 2,156 | 3,849 | 5,070 | 7,267 |
| Net margin | -50.8% | 8.8% | -65.5% | -60.9% | -3.3% | -28.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.4% |
| Net debt | -917 | 490 | -3,986 | 1,405 | 5,242 | 5,242 | 5,242 | 5,242 | 5,242 | 5,242 |
| MktCap | 50,038 | 87,551 | 77,562 | 131,835 | 131,835 | 131,835 | 131,835 | 131,835 |
Historical Multiples
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Revenue | 3.5 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | -13.4 | -35.2 | -107.0 | 80.0 | 33.8 | 21.4 | 16.1 | 12.5 |
| P/E | -5.9 | -12.9 | -136.1 | -14.4 | 61.1 | 34.2 | 26.0 | 18.1 |
